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Articles on Picking Mutual Fund |
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How to Choose a Mutual Fund
If you are selecting actively managed mutual
funds of your own volition, or if you are forced to do so because your
401(k) plan does not provide an index fund, you should have the mindset
that you are selecting from a universe that underperforms the market and
you are primarily attempting to cut your losses. If you think that we can
give you a set of directions that are likely to beat the market
using mutual funds -- well, we really don't have a system for that and we
don't believe anyone else does either. But with the objective of keeping
expense ratios and turnover low, you can improve your chances of finding a
fund that will not lose badly to the market and improve your chances of
finding a fund that holds some promise of outperforming the market.
Yes, each and every year there are some
mutual funds that beat the overall market, and there are even years when
the majority of mutual funds beat the market. But trying to pick a mutual
fund ahead of time that will beat the market is extraordinarily difficult.
When "mutual fund experts" are asked to pick mutual funds that they think
will beat the market, they almost always fail, typically with disastrous
results. In 1998, ten mutual fund experts were asked by USA Today to pick
two mutual funds for the year. None, none, were able to pick a fund that
beat the market. Studies show that picking mutual funds on the basis of
past performance does not work, and saints preserve anyone who picks
mutual funds on the basis of screaming magazine headlines.
So, can we imagine a time when a Fool would willingly choose to put his
hard-earned money into a mutual fund?
Imagine a Fool walking down the street, innocently minding his own
business, thinking only of ways to educate, amuse, or otherwise enrich
some of his fellow men. Imagine that the Fool, lost in his thoughts,
doesn't notice that the street he is on is Wall Street, and that suddenly
he is cornered by an extremely well-dressed gun-toting thug who starts
screaming, "We measure success one actively managed mutual fund sold at a
time! Pick one now, or I'll blow your head off!"
Seem improbable? It should. It really should. We know Wall Street is full
of a lot of irrational people, but we really don't think any of them would
do this. We hope not anyway. Time will tell.
But, in reality, many Fools are confronted with the necessity of picking
mutual funds from of a selection in their 401(k) plans when an index fund
is not one of the options. If you remember what we have described so far
in the previous sections, you'll have no problem going about picking a
fund. If you skipped some of those articles, fell asleep, got distracted
by the television, have short-term memory problems, or just can't get
enough reviews of things you've already read once, here are the salient
points set forth again.
Your mutual fund shopping list should read:
- No sales charges (front loads,
contingent deferred sales loads, level loads)
- A low expense ratio (below 1.00%)
- Low turnover, no higher than 50% a
year, and preferably closer to 20%
- Full investment policy. Cash reserves
of nearly 0%.
And we'll review these concepts again for
ya.
Studies show that over time, virtually all of the difference in return
between managed funds and index funds is attributable to the higher costs
imposed by actively managed funds. These costs come in the form of loads
and expense ratios.
You want to make sure that you are not paying any sales charges. Sales
charges come in various stripes, also known as loads or commissions. There
might be a charge for buying into the fund (a front-end load) or selling
the fund (back-end load, deferred sales charge, or redemption fee). Avoid
all of these. Some funds have back-end loads that are reduced the longer
you hold the fund. Best to avoid these as well. If you have to buy an
actively managed fund, buy the fund with no sales charges at all. Funds
that normally have sales charges sometimes waive them or have reduced
sales charges for large 401(k) accounts.
Expense ratios represent the annual fees charged by all funds, including
the management fee, the administrative costs, 12b-1 distribution fees, and
other operating expenses. You want to make sure that the fees are as low
as possible. Index funds typically charge about 0.20% of the assets, and
actively managed funds currently average about 1.5% per year. The average
fee, by the way, has actually been climbing in recent years. Any fund that
has fees above 1% per year can be expected to under-perform the total
returns offered by an index fund.
Turnover measures how long a fund holds on to the stocks it buys. The
longer a mutual fund holds on to a stock and the less trading the fund
does, the lower the turnover will be. Since a fund incurs costs every time
it buys and sells stocks (just like you do), the lower the turnover, the
lower the transaction costs incurred by the fund -- and the lower the
capital gains taxes. Ideally, Fools like to see funds that practice the
"buy and hold" method of investing -- those funds are the most index-like.
Funds that have a turnover of 100% are essentially buying a completely new
set of companies every year. Turnover should ideally be substantially
lower than the mutual fund average of about 80%. Index funds have turnover
as low as 5%.
A mutual fund that has an established track record is less important than
you would think. Studies show that measuring performance over two decades
or longer, 99% of funds that outperform the market in one decade revert to
the mean in the next decade. Past performance really isn't an indication
of future results. If a fund has outperformed the S&P 500 recently,
determine how it does against similar Morningstar style box funds.
Make sure to check out the consistency of the fund's returns. You're
looking for funds that not only have shown good returns on the whole, but
ones that do so on a consistent basis, rather than having great runs
followed by lousy ones. Most funds that claim to have outperformed the
market over a ten-year period really had most or all of their truly good
performance when they were young and small. Once the fund has attracted a
couple of billion extra dollars, the fund usually starts performing more
in line with the market.
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